Volume 2 Issue 6

February 10, 2003

Paying at the Pump

Nukes for everyone, US decides to go after NATO too, and booze on Sunday

So has anyone else noticed that the price of gasoline jumped over the weekend? On Friday, I remember seeing gas at my local station for $1.68, which is expensive, but that's about as good as it gets in the city. But Sunday, when I actually needed gas, I drove by it and was shocked to see it at $1.81! In fact, the latest Lundberg Survey (which tracks weekly change in gas prices), the average price of gas increased 11 cents over the weekend, to a national average of $1.60. (http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/02/09/gas.prices/index.html)

Unfortunately, it looks like that is only the beginning, as we're moving into a period where we may see $2 gallons of gas become standard across the nation. Of course the situation in Venezuela is part of it, but that will likely be fixed within weeks. The bigger issue is disruption in supply from the Iraqi crisis, and the coming summer months, when the price of gas regularly goes up. While OPEC has said that they will try to adjust production to keep oil at around $30 a barrel, even during a war in Iraq, in reality their ability to do that is questionable, and oil has recently been over $35 a barrel despite this pledge. There's a few ways to look at this I guess. First, all those folks with their SUV's will pay dearly once gas gets tremendously expensive, so perhaps the market itself will finally kill the SUV. Secondly, perhaps it will also push the market to produce more hybrid cars (maybe the SUV's will go hybrid too, that'd be a huge moneymaker for whoever does it first). But in reality, it may have bad short-term economic implications, especially if a stock market crash occurs at the same time, which could make things really bad for W, since not only will he have the war, but the economy, shaky already, could actually be much worse. In fairness, gas didn't increase too much during the 1991 Gulf War, but part of the reason for that was that the war date was known well in advance, so refineries could plan ahead, and the Saudi's were big supporters of that war, and personally increased their supply, two factors that have yet to occur in this situation. So...gas up now if you can, because Bush's hydrogen cars (and see the Jan. 29 column for details again on why that's not the best idea) won't be around for another 20 years or so...

Anti-valentine of the day: Continuing on a common Swamp topic thread, there was a good article in the Washington Post over the weekend about the changes in romance due to our culture. For those of you new to the Swamp, this is quite a common topic, as it has big demographic and cultural implications, and is one of the more underreported stories out there. It also marks the beginning of "anti-valentine" week, where I will feature stories about how stupid Friday's holiday is. -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A42696-2003Feb7.html

Orange Peel Alert: Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge says that this terror alert is the most serious since 9/11. Or at least the most serious since the last alert. -
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/US/ap20030210_570.html

We'll take nukes too, please: As Bush's foreign policy unravels, Iran now will begin developing nuclear weapons. This makes perfect sense for them, since the US tends to ignore nations that have nukes (North Korea) while attacking those who may be developing them, but don't have them yet (Iraq). -
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/reuters20030209_214.html
Fears of a North Korean missile launch are climbing. A test launch may lead to a more militant Japan, potentially destabilizing the region -
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/09/international/asia/09cnd-korea.html

NATO vs. US: Looks like the war in Europe may be bigger than the war in Iraq. Belgium, France, and Germany are trying to prevent NATO from mobilizing for war in Iraq, and it may spell the end for the alliance, and another stunning foreign policy change for the Bush administration. I keep expecting one day to hear we've "preemptively" nuked Russia or something...
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/10/international/worldspecial /10cnd-dipl.html
US troops may also leave Germany soon, where they've been stationed since 1945 -
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/10/international/europe/10TRO O.html

I can spell "economy" ! Bush is trying to save his tax plan -
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/10/politics/10BUSH.html
He is also trying to find a way to express to the public that he knows what he's doing -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48887-2003Feb9.html

Remember the "lockbox"? If you're under 35, you will remember Al Gore's old idea when your taxes triple in about 20 years to pay for today's spending and lack of fiscal discipline -
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-na-outlook10feb10001516,1,4949783.column?coll=la%2Dnews%2Da%5Fsection

Look Who's Running for President: TIME reports that Chris Dodd (D-Conn) may be the second Connecticut senator to get into the Presidential race, which could complicate things for his colleague Joe Liberman -
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1101030217-420971,00.html

Look Who's Running for President 2: South Carolina Rep Jim Clyburn may have decided not to run as a favorite son, but he will still be the most important man in the S.C. Primary -
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/politics/5141519.h tm

Look Who's Running for President 3: Dick Gephardt should have Missouri sealed up...but he may not, and other candidates are suddenly realizing that Missouri could be competitive -
http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/politics/51385 60.htm

Look Who's Running for President 4: John Edwards is having some Civil War problems -
http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/02/07/edwards.campaign/i ndex.html
And Confederate "flaggers" in Georgia are flexing their political muscle too. This is what I don't understand. The Confederate emblem on the Georgia Flag was introduced in 1956, in the middle of the integration battles...how can pro-flag people not get the meaning of that? In reality, I think the Confederate flag was corrupted when it was used in those battles, which hurts those who claim it now for heritage -
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/5144878.htm

Look Who's Running for President 5: Howard Dean is attacking the other Dem candidates for voting for the war in Iraq, and then saying they oppose it. At least Liberman doesn't have that problem. Oh, notice that the New York Times now uses "Dr. Dean" to refer to the former Vermont Governor. Makes him look a bit better when he's being compared to "Mr. Kerry" perhaps? -
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/10/politics/campaigns/10DEAN. html
Here's the Iowa take on Dean's criticism -
http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c4789004/20448207. html

Look Who's Running For President - A Scorecard Update (2/10):
RUNNING
Gov. Howard "Jed Barlett" Dean (Vermont) - http://www.deanforamerica.com/
Senator John Kerry (Massachusetts) - http://www.johnkerry.com
Senator John Edwards (North Carolina) - http://www.johnedwards2004.com/
Congressman Richard Gephardt (Missouri) Reportedly Dick will have a site by next week...
Al Sharpton (NY) - http://www.sharptonexplore2004.com/
Senator Joe Liberman (Conn.) - http://www.joe2004.com

CONSIDERING
Former Senator Gary Hart (Colorado) - http://www.garyhartnews.com
Congressman Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) - http://www.draftkucinich.com/
Former Senator Carol Moseley Braun (Illinois)
Senator Bob Graham (Florida)
General Wesley Clark (Arkansas)
Senator Chris Dodd (Conn.)

LONG SHOTS
Senator Joseph Biden (Delaware)
50 "favorite sons" under the Donna Brazille plan
And half the Democratic Party over the age of 35.

OUT
Former VP and President-Elect Al Gore
Governor Gray Davis (California)
Former Senator Bill Bradley (New Jersey)
Senator Tom Daschle (South Dakota)
Senator Hilary Clinton (New York)

Card Movement Today: Chris Dodd moves into the considering column again. Also, Dick Gephardt will rumoredly have a website by next week.

Space Shuttle Columbia: Lots of good articles on the culture at NASA over the weekend...
Investigators are looking at the possibility that something may have struck the shuttle on the 2nd day of the mission -
http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/space/02/10/sprj.colu.wrap/inde x.html
A good look at how the fiscal pressures may have lead to disaster -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45588-2003Feb8.html
And on how NASA managers may have begun to believe their own propaganda -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A49325-2003Feb9.html
A discussion on why the exploration of space is important -
http://www.post-gazette.com/columnists/20030209edroddy09p1.asp
http://www.post-gazette.com/forum/comm/20030209edapt09p1.asp
But the debate on whether or not the shuttle is useful continues -
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/10/national/nationalspecial/1 0MISS.html
Here's a look at the two most promising designs for a shuttle successor that were killed because of funding -
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/scitech/US/shuttle_futureshut tle030210.html

Smoking it out: New Jersey has become the latest state to consider banning smoking at most indoor businesses, including bars and (gasp!) casinos -
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/business-casino/020803SMOKINGBAN.html
And the restaurant associations actually wouldn't object, as long as there were no exemptions -
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/states/new_jer sey/5133851.htm
Oh, and it doesn't look like Jim "one-termer" McGreevy's budget is going over too well. One columnist compares his budget address to the film A Perfect Storm, and we all know what happened to the folks in that movie at the end -
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/states/new_jer sey/5137765.htm
And one more on the Garden State today...if 82% of the people of a state supported something, would you think that legislators would at least consider it? But that's not what's happening in NJ, where 82% of residents want to hold a Constitutional Convention to fix the property tax problem, and try and figure out where all the money is going -
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-3/10447759409820.xml

Boozing it up! In Pennsylvania yesterday, something interesting happened for the first time in history. You could by booze on Sunday. Yes, that's right folks, some of Pa's famed "state stores" are open on the Lord's day! Oh, and corkscrews are now legal too.
http://www.post-gazette.com/localnews/20030209alcohol0209p5.asp
Here's a good history of the ban (the one on the booze, I don't really think you can even begin to explain the ban on corkscrews) and a great headline! -
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/5144874.htm

Dude, you're going to Jail! Dell pitchman "Steven" was arrested last night on a drug charge in NYC -
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/delldude1.html

Maybe the airlines could make money by selling stuff: Vietnam Airlines is having a big problem. People keep stealing the life vests from under their seats for use in the water during their vacations -
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/southeast/02/08/offbea t.stealing.lifevests.reut/index.html

And you think it's a bad winter now? At least you're not with Washington at Valley Forge in 1778 -
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/5137734.htm

Have a great day!

Gregory S. Gadren