Volume 2 Issue 36
March 24, 2003
Roadblocks
Is the Pentagon's war plan flawed, the market roller coaster returns, and Greg gives up on March Madness
As the weekend progressed, I watched the war plan that the Pentagon was putting into action with interest and some confusion. One of the traditional military axioms is to always make sure your supply lines are closely guarded, yet Allied forces seemed to just be making a beeline for Baghdad, passing Iraqi forces in cities, and seemingly ignoring the risk that those units (and guerrilla forces in the area) could pose later. The Pentagon did admit early on that the war plan was risky, but the thought was that opposition would quickly crumble in the South, and that the US troops would be welcomed as liberators instead of invaders. This does not appear to have happened.
Unfortunately, my fears were played out over the last day or so, as multiple attacks took place far beyond the front lines, the port city of Umm Qasr erupted in fighting, and numbers of support personnel were taken prisoner in an ambush well behind the front. It looks like the Iraqi's may have been doing some psychops of their own on us, making us think that many of them will surrender, when in reality most intend to fight. Don't get me wrong here, the US is still the superior military force, and no supply line can ever be 100% safe, but the breakneck speed of our attack (which resulted in a retreat earlier today when a group of Apache's attacking Republican Guard units near Baghdad were badly beaten back) seems to be leaving our rear exposed. Simply put, we don't yet have enough troops to secure all of that area, since a few divisions that were supposed to invade from Turkey are still on ships on their way through the Suez Canal towards Kuwait, where they could begin to help secure these areas. I'm not a General of course, but it seems to me that the bigger threat to our forces, both now and in the post-war period, will come from guerrilla attacks, not from conventional armies, and we need to be very careful to guard against it, especially if we plan to mount a siege or offensive for Baghdad. If that happens, and the front line troops get cut off or flanked...things could get a lot worse before they get better.
I think in retrospect, the Administration tried to play down the threat to our forces, and the cost and difficulty of the campaign before it started. Part of it may be that after excellent operations in Gulf War I, Kosovo, and Afghanistan, there is a complacency in the military. But also, the administration may have calculated that if they had leveled with the people, support for the war may have been even less. Former General Wesley Clark below today in an interview with Jake Tapper points out that the administration has continuously pushed the most optimistic scenario at all times, while ignoring the fact that the most likely scenario may be a bit more grim. Of course, in Afghanistan too we hit some roadblocks, but there we were told the war may be tough, while here, at least until the last day or so, it was played out to be a real quick short-term, light loss event. Hopefully the commanders can tailor their plan again and end this swiftly, but we must not let truth become the first casualty of war, and look more at the likely scenarios, rather than just the optimistic ones.
Updated Note: If you've watched any of the military briefings today, you'll notice they're trying to diminish expectations...
Oh, and my March Madness picks were so off, I've stopped making them. So much for the pool entry...
WAR NEWS
(Usually I would also block off an area before for non-war news...but unfortunately, the war has become part of our economic, cultural, and political life as well, so nothing today is truly unrelated...except for that last one, that's kind of out there.)
A Flawed Strategy? Some analysis of the flaws in the American war plan, and how it may prolong the war or increase casualties -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A16458-2003Mar23.html
Is the attempt to spare infrastructure and civilians complicating things too much?
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/03/24/MN265817.DTL
The battle for Umm Qasr: One of the prime examples of the flaws in the US strategy came on Sunday at Umm Qasr, a port city we supposedly had secured on Thursday. Not only was there "sporadic resistance", but also a Republican Guard unit that had tank and artillery support -
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5944-621910,00.html
A timeline of the battle -
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5944-621911,00.html
In another first, the battle was actually shown live on TV, thanks to an embedded British TV crew. This is really changing the face of war, these reporters -
http://slate.msn.com/id/2080582/
The Siege of Basra: And in a relatively unreported story, US and British troops are stuck outside of Basra by the heavy resistance being put up by Iraqi troops inside. But of course, it's not a "siege". It's just a "surrounded city." Can't use bad words now...-
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A14208-2003Mar23.html
The UN is worried about the humanitarian situation in Basra, which has no electricity or water -
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/international/international-iraq-aid-basra.html
The Mood in Baghdad: A Slate correspondent fights to stay in Baghdad, but is very frightened by how anti-American the people are...could this be a longer and harder battle than first thought?
http://slate.msn.com/id/2080432/
Liberators? We're not exactly being welcomed into some towns -
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/21/international/worldspecial /21CND-TOWN.html
None of the promised aid has gotten into Iraq yet, mainly because the allies have yet to secure the ports -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A16461-2003Mar23.html
The Turks and the Kurds: This is quickly approaching worst-case scenario status as well, as speculation continues that the Kurds may have been sold out by the US for overflight rights. But the Turks are preparing to invade Kurdish areas in Northern Iraq regardless of whether the US or UN approves -
http://slate.msn.com/id/2080584/
The EU has told Turkey that if it gets involved, then they can forget about joining the EU -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2881939.stm
Stupidity or Corruption? The investigation into the forged Iraqi documents shown to the UN as "proof" continues. In Jack Shafer's words, this isn't good because "The story behind the forged documents and how they made their way from the United States to U.N. inspectors is important because it suggests the Bush administration is 1) incompetent; 2) stupid; 3) corrupt; or 4) all of the above." -
http://slate.msn.com/id/2080583/
Should Powell resign? An interesting discussion of Powell's role in the administration from Bill Keller -
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/22/opinion/22KELL.html
What about after? A fascinating debate between Neo-Con Richard Perle, and the head of the EU Green Party, Daniel Cohn-Bendit. What's interesting is that they both don't like France. Pearle because of their opposition to his war, and well I guess there's still some hard feelings over that revolution Cohn-Bendit started in Paris in 1968... -
http://foreignpolicy.com/issue_mayjune_2003/debate.html
Well, it's also the weapons of mass destruction that he has...oh wait: A New Jersey Congressman got in a funny spot last week when speaking to school kids about the war. When he asked what a dictator was, one of the kids said it was someone who becomes President when he isn't elected...like George Bush -
http://www.southjerseynews.com/issues/march/m032203e.htm
Gift of the year? Could the new military-grade laptop be the big gift this Christmas? You can drop it from a 2 story building, spill your coffee on it, and it still works!
http://slate.msn.com/id/2080546/
Is it the economy, stupid? With war raging in Iraq, one would think that it would be the topic that most concerns Americans...but it isn't: the economy still is, especially the signs of stagflation -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12182-2003Mar22.html
Home foreclosures (people who can't pay their mortgages and get evicted) are at their highest rate ever -
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-economy-foreclosures.html
The Stock Market: Went up last week on hopes of a quick war -
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/22/business/22STOX.html
And back down today once people realized it probably won't be -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18616-2003Mar24.html
Look Who's Running for President: After Ohio Rep Dennis Kucinich spoke to a group of newspaper editors last week, the moderator asked how many papers might endorse him...and everyone laughed. That's not a good sign -
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,81815,00.html
Look Who's Running for President 2: Seems the camaraderie among the ball club is already fading, as Senators Kerry and Edwards were heard bitching about former Vermont Governor Howard Dean last week -
http://www.globe.com/dailyglobe2/082/nation/Dean_s_rhetoric_ on_war_creates_a_campaign_stir+.shtml
Look Who's Running for President 3: General Wesley Clark is everywhere these days, working for CNN as a war analyst. He also had an op-ed in the Washington Post on Sunday about the post-war plans -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8221-2003Mar21.html
He also talks with Jake Tapper in Salon in a fantastic article and interview about the mistakes that led to war, and that whole running for President thing -
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2003/03/24/clark/index_np. html(You have to view an ad to read this.)
And in other news... Is the Earth's core a nuclear reactor? Is it about to blow up? Ah...think happy thoughts -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A13080-2003Mar23.html
