Volume 2 Issue 155
December 30, 2003
Pizza Politics
Iran still hates us, the ballclub begins to count their money again, and the strange tipping habits of DC pizza customers
Below you'll see that the money posturing for the 4th quarter has begun. What's interesting is that the end of the 4th quarter is the last chance the rest of the ballclub has to opt out of the public finance system, losing matching funds, but gaining the ability to spend without limits. Dean and Kerry have already opted out of this system, and the failure of the other front runners to do so severely impacts their ability to win the general election, something they have been hitting Dean on in recent days.
Of the rest of the pack, Gephardt and Clark are the ones with the best chance of eeking out a comeback victory at the convention. The problem is that regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination, they'll win it by mid-March, or April at the latest. Under campaign rules, the "primary period" still continues until after the convention in late July. This means that candidates in the public finance system will only be able to spend about $45 million before that time, most of which will be needed to win the nomination.
This leaves a bad scenario for Clark or Gephardt in April. With the nomination won, but their treasury depleted, they would have to withstand an onslaught of Bush ads and attacks, funded by his $100+ million campaign chest. If the spending caps have been met, the nominee would be unable to respond to Bush, who has opted out of the system as well. Dean or Kerry would be able to keep raising money and respond. The Democrats are not as disadvantaged in the money game as you may think, it's just that their money is split 9 ways currently. If a nominee was getting donations from all parts of the party, there's a good chance he could at least match Bush in that key period of the campaign.
There hasn't been much talk from the Clark or Gephardt campaign about this. Clark needs the matching funds money, because they will help make up for this late entrance into the race, which put him behind in the "money primary". Gephardt's fundraising has been lackluster, with Clark supposedly raising as much in the 4th Quarter as Gephardt has raised all year. As these candidates attack Dean for being "unelectable", perhaps they should address how they intend to overcome this self-inflicted barrier that hurts their electablity as well.
A Sad Note...Regular readers will remember that I lost my job in September, and have been unable to find a new full-time position yet. Unfortunately, this will mean I will have to move out of my apartment and back up to New Jersey, at least temporarily, while continuing the job search. Apart from a "moving" break towards the end of the week, the Swamp should continue as normal, after all, most of South Jersey is a swamp too! Any major changes to the site's general mission and such will hold off until something permanent happens. Thanks to everyone for your continued support! Onto the insanity...
Thanks, but we still hate you: Colin Powell says that relations with Iran are improving, especially since the US sent tons of earthquake aid -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A39886-2003Dec29.html
But not so fast, says Iran...
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/politics/politics-quake-iran-usa.html
Up Next on the Bush War Front: The articles preparing us for war with Syria have begun to appear -
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/iraq/la-fg-iraqarms30dec30,1,7925533.story?coll=la-home-headlines
Look Who's Running for President: Some have said that the "Bush hating" will hurt the Dems, but E.J. Dionne argues it's a rational response to Bush's governance style, and that the anger may help Dean be more mainstream in the general election -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A40029-2003Dec29.html
Look Who's Running for President 2: Dean is doing some backpedaling after his attack on the DNC chair this weekend, and the other members of the ballclub are of course using any sign of disarray in the Dean camp to attack. Dean's comments though, are interesting, because while he continues to rule out a 3rd party run if he loses the nomination, it shows he does feel that his supporters would not strongly back another Democratic candidate -
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/30/politics/campaigns/30TRAI. html
Look Who's Running for President 3: The 4th Quarter money reports have started to come in, and unsurprisingly Dean and Clark are the winners. The 4th Quarter ends on the 31st, reports are due on January 15 -
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/30/politics/campaigns/30DONA. html
Look Who's Running for President 4: John Edwards says he's not at all interested in the Vice Presidency. This man must really enjoy unemployment. Though, of course he'd say he's not interested in the VP slot while he's still running for President -
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/politi cs_edwards_dc
Bad John Edwards Photo of the Day:
I think the gingerbread man has a better shot at the nomination...
Look Who's Voting for President: Absentee voting in DC's "first-in-the-nation, but it doesn't count for squat" primary began yesterday -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A39750-2003Dec29.html
Look Who's Voting for President 2: One of the unique things about the nomination process is that voters abroad are afforded delegates by both parties. A look at how candidates campaign overseas -
http://www.post-gazette.com/election/20031226expatvoters1226p2.asp
Where did the Mainstream go? Most of these "year-in-review" things are pretty dumb, but TIME had a good one this week about how culture seems to have scattered -
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1101031229-566024,00.html
Saddam loves Oregon: Tim Noah has for the last few weeks been following an interesting mystery...how did the Oregon license plate from a 1960 DeSoto end up in Saddam Hussein's palace?
Part 1: http://slate.msn.com/id/2092723/
Part 2: http://slate.msn.com/id/2092904/
Part 3: http://slate.msn.com/id/2093088/
Obligatory Michael Jackson story of the Week: Has Jacko signed everything over to the Nation of Islam?
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/30/arts/30JACK.html?pagewante d=all&position=
The World Explained by Pizza: The annual Domino's Pizza of Washington, DC survey shows us some fun traits of pizza customers in our nation's capital. Paris Hilton and John Ashcroft are the fake names most often used, people who answer the door in the nude tip more, Trista and Ryan apparently make people eat pizza, and Dean supporters are much better tippers than Bush supporters. Oh, and the nights with the highest tips of the year? When Saddam was captured...and the night Britney and Madonna kissed on the MTV music awards. -
http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/12/29/offbeat.pizza.reut/index.ht ml
