Volume 3 Issue 3
February 4, 2004
Joememtum Gets Hit By the Kerry Train
Kerry wins big, Clark and Edwards survive, and CBS tries to have a nipple-free weekend
So big night for John Kerry yesterday, but he fell short of the "vanquishing my opponents" type of night. Edwards and Clark live to fight another day, and Dean is still out there as well. On the website, most of the delegates from yesterday have been posted. In Delaware, Kerry got 14 of the 15 up for grabs, but there's some debate on whether or not Sharpton picked one up in Wilmington City. In New Mexico, some absentee ballots have yet to be counted, and the media's delegate numbers vary widely, so I'm going togive that a day or so to work itself out.
That said, lets take a Swamp post-election look at the winners and losers -
Winners
John Kerry - How can he not be? He won 5 of the 7 states, and got a hoard of delegates to add to his already impressive total. No candidate who has won as many contests as he has ever been denied the nomination.
But...Kerry still faces viable opponents, and a media gaggle just waiting for him to screw up.
John Edwards - The showing in SC was expected, but the virtual tie in Oklahoma is the big Edwards news of the night. He's well positioned to be the anti-Kerry candidate, and if Dean can pick off some northern states from the front runner, Edwards may be able to roll up enough Southern delegates to give him a run for his money.
But...Can Edwards get enough money to compete? Also, Clark and he will compete for the same votes in Tennessee and Virginia.
Wesley Clark - Yesterday this campaign was near dead, now will his victory in Oklahoma help him to surge? Clark could take Kerry on in the national security arena...
But...the campaign is still poorly run, and Clark is just...strange. Given a 1-on-1 matchup with Edwards, I think Clark will come up short.
Losers
Howard Dean - The doctor knew he wasn't going to do well last night, but he didn't even pick up many delegates. It's hard to run on a delegate accumulation strategy when you don't win delegates. What's worse, the Dean campaign now has no momentum, and it will make the task of winning in Wisconsin much harder.
But...He did survive, Kerry didn't sweep it up, and who knows?
Joe Lieberman - And here loser may not be strong enough of a word. He spent hoards of time in Delaware when no one else was there...and got 11% of the vote to Kerry's 50%. He'll go down in history with John Glenn and other hopefuls that never really took off. At least he didn't delude himself into continuing this time.
But...Sorry...there ain't no good part here.
Onto the insanity...
The Kerry Bandwagon: With his big wins yesterday, Kerry will now try to tie up the nomination sooner rather than later. While Dean may still be a factor, Edwards is the candidate they now fear the most -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A11003-2004Feb3?language=printer
The exit polls though, should give Kerry some pause. While voters who most wanted to beat Bush in November voted for Kerry, voters who wanted a candidate they thought cared about them went for Edwards big time. Will there be buyer's remorse once people realize that Kerry's the one? -
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-poll4feb04,1,9234.story
The new "Anyone But Kerry" Candidate - John "Southern Man" Edwards: Edwards' win in SC was big, but he still has a long way to go -
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/04/politics/campaign/04EDWA.h tml
Edwards put his heart and soul into South Carolina...something he may not be able to do in the other southern states -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A10960-2004Feb3?language=printer
General Comeback? The Oklahoma Miracle: Clark escaped with a win by the thinnest of margins, but Edwards was surprisingly strong there as well. Clark will now try to take Tennessee to keep his campaign alive -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10964-2004Feb3.html
Clark's son, pissed off about the campaign, spouted off to the media yesterday -
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/04/politics/campaign/04CBOX.h tml
Joe No More: Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman dropped out of the race last night after his disappointing finish in Delaware -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10966-2004Feb3.html
In fact, his losses last night were not just big, they were embarrassing -http://www.ctnow.com/news/elections/hc-2joe0204.artfeb04,0,1432677.story?coll=hc-headlines-breakingnews
William Saletan mourns the passing of the average Joe -
http://slate.msn.com/id/2094759/
What's Next? Edwards' win yesterday keeps the door open for him, Clark, and Dean...but it's more and more unlikely by the day -
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/04/politics/campaign/04DEMS.h tml?hp
And they're going to have to hope that Kerry hits some potholes, which he's been pretty good at avoiding since he became the front runner -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A10344-2004Feb3?language=printer
And despite their wins yesterday, Clark and Edwards have a long way to go to prove they can beat Kerry -
http://slate.msn.com/id/2094916/
One of the key issues now that Dean has imploded is what becomes of his supporters. Young people especially were energized by the campaign, and the Democrats will need those voters to stay excited if they're to win in the fall. Can Kerry do that?
http://www.detnews.com/2004/politics/0402/04/a01e-55303.htm
February 7 - Washington State: Dean hopes to make a stand here, but that will probably have to be a strong second -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10965-2004Feb3.html
February 10 - Tennessee: Edwards and Clark both must win this southern state -
http://www.tennessean.com/elections/2004/archives/04/02/4645 5980.shtml?Element_ID=46455980
A poll taken before last night shows Kerry with a lead, and Clark second -
http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/TN040203dempprimary.pdf
March 20 - Alaska: Campaigning for your candidate in Alaska is a bit of a challenge -
http://www.adn.com/front/story/4704199p-4655096c.html
Bad Intelligence: Iraq isn't the first case of the US going to war over false pretenses. Take Grenada for example, the 1983 invasion that was supposedly to rescue American medical students taken hostage. Only problem was that they weren't taken hostage. To boot, the US could have confirmed this with a phone call. The invasion didn't go to well either, with the US losing intel provided by other nations on troop locations, and forced to purchase tourist maps once on the island to find their way around -
http://slate.msn.com/id/2094833/
Attack on the Senate: Ricin is now confirmed to have been found in the Senate Majority Leader's office -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A10632-2004Feb3?language=printer
In what may be a related attack, a vial of Ricin was sent to the White House in November, along with a note protesting new trucking rest rules that went into effect in January. The letter was intercepted before it reached the White House though -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8403-2004Feb3.html
Investigators are also trying to determine if this attack is related to the Anthrax attacks in 2001. No one has ever been arrested in that attack -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10286-2004Feb3.html
Ricin has an interesting history. Most famously, it was used by the KGB to assassinate a Bulgarian dissident in 1978. Georgi Markov died 4 days after a KGB agent injected him with ricin through an umbrella on London's Waterloo Bridge -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10287-2004Feb3.html
The Bush Budget: Here's a list of all the programs Bush is eliminating...inculdign such favorites as election reform, arts in education, empowerment zones, and brownfields redevelopment -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10954-2004Feb3.html
Airlines in Trouble: Did you know US Air's biggest stock holder is the State of Alabama? Make your own joke here...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10905-2004Feb3.html
Lobbying for Colleges: Lobbying by Colleges and Universities, once thought of as beneath institutions of higher education, is now becoming the norm -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A10807-2004Feb3?language=printer
It's Elementary: I still don't understand how scientists can "create" elements, if elements are supposed to be the basic building blocks of nature...but here's how they name them -
http://slate.msn.com/id/2094863/
The Worst Rule in All of Baseball: Despite dedicated proponents and opponents, don't expect the DH Rule to be going anywhere soon -
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1725503
The Grammy's on CBS...America's Nipple Network: CBS has ordered a new "video delay" system to be developed for the Grammy's on Sunday. TV has used an audio delay for years, but a video delay is new. Of course, it also doesn't exist yet, so CBS is trying to figure that one out -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A10822-2004Feb3?language=printer
